Fischhoff found that, when a participant was told an outcome was true, they frequently assigned a higher probability to that outcome. Then, all participants were asked to determine the likelihood of each outcome. 2 Some participants were told which one of the four outcomes was true other participants were not given any information. In 1975, American psychologist Baruch Fischhoff published, “Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgement under uncertainty.” 2 Fischhoff developed a method to examine hindsight bias, a cognitive bias where an event’s outcome seems more predictable after we know what happened.įischhoff’s method consisted of presenting participants with four possible outcomes to a short story. – Chip and Dan Heath, authors of Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die That’s when the curse of knowledge kicks in, and we start to forget what it’s like not to know what we know.
Becoming an expert in something means that we become more and more fascinated by nuance and complexity. Lots of us have expertise in particular areas.
Our goal is to make information as digestible as possible: to do that, we need to avoid the curse of knowledge! Many people with interest in behavioral science come from different backgrounds and levels of familiarity. This is a facet of learning that The Decision Lab hopes to address. In turn, this makes it difficult to share our knowledge, because we struggle to understand the other party’s state of mind. 1 When we know something, it can be hard to imagine what it would be like not knowing that piece of information.
The “curse of knowledge,” or “the curse of expertise,” is a cognitive bias where we incorrectly assume that everyone knows as much as we do on a given topic. People often say “knowledge is power.” But what happens when we all have different levels of knowledge? Our consulting services Icon arrow right white color In our work, we leverage the insights of diverse fields-from psychology and economics to machine learning and behavioral data science-to sculpt targeted solutions to nuanced problems.
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